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Wouldn’t a "long shot" candidate that polls at less than 5% nationally be expected to finish consistently near the bottom of every straw poll?
 

Wouldn’t winning just 2 straw polls be a huge success?


Even if a candidate were to win their “fair share” of 1 out of 8, winning 6 straw polls would be fantastic.

 
Facts:
  • winning 2 out of 49 is 4%
  • winning 6 out of 49 is 12%
  • winning 27 out of 49 is 55%
  • Ron Paul has finished in the top 3 in 84% of the straw polls (41 out of 49)
  • Ron Paul has finished in the top 2 in 69% of the straw polls (34 out of 49)
  • Ron Paul has finished 1st in 55% of the straw polls (27 out of 49)

Ron Paul won 27 out of 49 straw polls, how does a "long shot" candidate win 55% of the straw polls?

 

Ron Paul would seem to be a "top tier" candidate according to the straw polls. 

  

 Straw Poll

Rank

Date

Votes

West Alabama

1

8/18/2007

81.20%

Springfield Metropolitan Republican Club, Springfield, MO

1

11/1/2007

77.30%

CWA New Jersey GOP Straw Poll

1

9/29/2007

77.00%

Strafford County, NH

1

8/18/2007 

72.20% 

Oregon Straw Poll- Portland, Oregon

1

10/6/2007

67.00%

New Hampshire Taxpayers

1

7/7/2007

65.30%

Manchester, NH Straw Poll

1

9/16/2007

65.00%

Jefferson County, Alabama Straw Poll

1

10/13/2007

57.80%

 FreedomWorks Straw Poll

1

8/3/2007

56.00%

Wake County Young Republicans Straw Poll

(Raleigh, NC)

1

12/06/2007

 53.0%

Republican Abroad Korea Straw Poll (Seoul, Korea)

1

11/17/2007

50.00%

Laramie County GOP Straw Poll, Cheyenne, WY

1

10/28/2007

48.00%

The Patriot Primary Straw Poll AM 1280

(Minnetonka, MN)

1

11/28/2007

48.00%

Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

1

8/26/2007

45.20%

New York State Republican Straw Poll, New York City, NY

1

11/6/2007

43.3%

Tulsa State Fair, Oklahoma

1

10/7/2007

41.50%

Republican Party of Virginia Straw Poll (Arlington, VA)

1

 12/1/2007

 38.0%

South Sound Ronald Reagan Republican Club,

Tacoma, WA

1

11/1/2007

37.70%

Gaston County, NC

1

8/14/2007

36.60%

Gwinnett County GOP, Atlanta, Georgia

1

9/30/2007

36.20%

South Sound Ronald Reagan Republican Club

1

9/26/2007

35.00% 

Fresno County GOP Straw Poll, Fresno, CA

1

11/15/2007

35.00%

Conservative Leadership Conference, Reno, Nevada

1

10/13/2007

33.00%

Palmetto Family Council Straw Poll

2

9/20/2007

33.00%

Ronald Reagan Club (Washington)

1

8/21/2007

28.00%

Maryland Straw Poll

1

9/3/2007

27.30%

City High School Practice Caucus (Iowa City, IA)

1

12/4/2007

25.90%

DeKalb County, Georgia Straw Poll

1

8/25/2007

24.00%

San Diego County Republican Straw Poll

2

12/6/2007

23.30%

Illinois State Fair

3

8/17/2007

18.90%

Georgetown County, SC

2 

7/28/2007

17.90%

Cobb County, GA

2

7/4/2007

17.00%

National Taxpayers Union

2

6/16/2007

16.70%

Texas Straw Poll

3

9/1/2007

16.70%

HRCC (Minnesota)

3

8/22/2007

16.00%

Values Voter Straw Poll, Washington, DC

3

10/20/2007

15.00%

National Federation of Republican Assemblies,

St. Louis, MO

3

8/6/2007

14.00%

Values Voters Presidential Debate Poll

2

9/17/2007

13.00%

Washington State Republican Party Fall Dinner Straw Poll

4

10/11/2007

12.20%

California Republican Assembly

4

7/1/2007

12.00% 

West Lafayette, Indiana

4

8/18/2007

11.70%

Oklahoma County GOP Straw Poll

3

9/23/2007

11.00%

Evanston (IL) Republican Club Straw Poll

4

11/11/2007

10.90%

Mackinac Island - Michigan Republican Leadership Conference

3

9/23/2007

10.80%

Ames, Iowa

5

8/11/2007

9.10%

Students for Life of America

4

8/16/2007

9.00%

South Dakota Straw Poll

6

9/3/2007

8.00%

Utah GOP convention

2

6/8/2007

5.40%

Western Montana Fair

6

8/15/2007

4.00%

 

Current as of 12/21/2007

source: http://www.ronpaul2008.com/straw-poll-results/